How Climate Change is Re-routing Travel

It is not a coincidence that extreme weather events are occurring with more frequency and greater intensity. Scientists and other experts have been warning us for decades that climate change and our addiction to fossil fuels will eventually cause erratic weather patterns, including floods, fires and extreme heat. ‘The dog days of summer are not just barking, they are biting – climate breakdown has begun,’ António Guterres, secretary-general of the UN, said in a prepared message in summer 2023, the hottest recorded summer ever (source: UN).

Concerted efforts are being made to tackle climate change and conscious travel is one of the big trends revealed in our bespoke report, The Future of Travel, co-published with Marriott Bonvoy. But we know that we won’t find a panacea overnight. So, what implications does this have for tourism, travellers and hospitality businesses?

Perhaps one of the first significant shifts that we are already witnessing is the rise of shoulder seasons: tourists choosing to travel during traditionally off-peak seasons to avoid the ravaging summer heat in top destinations, for example. This includes visiting Japan during the cherry blossom season, which on average is occurring 10 days earlier than it used to, due to climate change (source: BBC).

A technical report on the regional impact of climate change on European tourism demand predicts that Europe’s southern coastal regions will see 10% fewer tourists compared to summer 2019 if there is a 3–4°C temperature increase (source: EU Joint Research Centre). The same study also found that demand in summer will be offset by increases in spring, autumn and winter – and in aggregated terms, the month of April is expected to see the highest increase in tourist flows (source: EU Joint Research Centre).

It isn’t just when we travel that is changing, but also where we go. Travel companies are already noticing a northwards shift and a growing consumer interest in Scandi Summers. The hashtag #scandinaviansummer had 54.4m views on TikTok at the time of writing, while new summer destinations such as Norway’s Lofoten Islands have racked up 81.6m views on the video-based app.

Carolyn Addison, head of product at London-based luxury travel operator Black Tomato, tells LS:N Global: ‘Across the board, destinations like Iceland, Norway, Finland and Sweden are increasingly appealing to families, as well as couples, groups of friends and solo travellers.’ Summer bookings to Scandinavia in 2023 were up 23% compared to 2022, according to Addison. ‘This year we’ve seen sales more than double,’ she says. ‘Scandinavian bookings are up 175% for summer 2024, compared with last year between May and September.’

The northwards shift has also been documented in Spain. Research from Expedia Group revealed that while holiday home searches in popular spots like Costa Blanca, Costa Brava and Mallorca remained steady, home rental interest climbed across the northern coast in June and July 2023 (source: CNBC). Costa Verde, Costa de Cantabria and towns across the Basque Country emerged as winners instead.

There is no doubt that climate change is already affecting the travel industry. Players in the sector need to consider how they can equip themselves to absorb the shock of shifting holiday patterns and changes in consumer travel behaviour. No longer can restaurants rest on their laurels in March or November. Big tourist destinations need to prepare themselves for longer, albeit lighter, tourist traffic trickling through all year. Similarly, hotels should re-evaluate whether their pricing models and package deals remain aligned with busy periods, and adjust rates accordingly.

The rate at which we’re responding to climate change is sluggish at best, and as revealed in a report co-created by The Future Laboratory and adventure tour operator Intrepid Travel, tourism as we currently know it is at the risk of extinction. Therefore, it is in businesses’ best interests to adapt accordingly.

Further reading